Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Brewmaster
Son GoKu · 1 game
Ogre Magi
XCJ · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
XCJ · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
September · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
33 picks · 65 bans
Puck
29 picks · 74 bans
Earth Spirit
28 picks · 20 bans
Void Spirit
26 picks · 41 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 27 bans
Monkey King
23 picks · 41 bans
Undying
22 picks · 40 bans
Ember Spirit
20 picks · 26 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:3
Invictus Gaming 50%Sparking Arrow Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 28:22.
Game 2prediction missed7:20
Invictus Gaming 50%Sparking Arrow Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 30:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 50%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2