Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 445 bans
Bane
453 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 565 bans
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 491 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:25
Invictus Gaming 75%Team Saiyan 25%
The model gave 75% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 25:19.
Game 2prediction missed33:13
Invictus Gaming 75%Team Saiyan 25%
The model gave 75% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 26:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 75%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2