DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionICIRON CLANloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IRON CLAN
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
396 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 555 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 723 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 384 bans
Lion
312 picks · 148 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 258 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% IRON CLAN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:31
IRON CLAN 37%TiltedBoys 63%
The model gave 63% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by IRON CLAN in 45:49.
Game 2prediction correct30:36
IRON CLAN 37%TiltedBoys 63%
The model gave 63% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 37:14.
Game 3prediction correct20:32
IRON CLAN 37%TiltedBoys 63%
The model gave 63% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 42:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 63%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3