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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivoryloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rupido · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dric~ · 4 games
25%

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 26 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 628 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
482 picks · 245 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 427 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
396 picks · 837 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 554 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
368 picks · 322 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
364 picks · 423 bans
57%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 827 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total86% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:38
Ivory 28%BOOM Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
50% · 283 games43% · 75 games
SvenJaCkky
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordRupido
56% · 121 game40% · 59 games
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Slark
SlarkDric~
56% · 78 games48% · 96 games
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
58% · 62 games
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
Shadow Shaman
42% · 190 games
TuskTims
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct17:46
Ivory 27%BOOM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
51% · 310 games57% · 106 games
DoomJaCkky
Doom
Axe
AxeRupido
42% · 34 games57% · 76 games
Monkey KingArmel
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDric~
50% · 204 games44% · 182 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
51% · 124 games
BatriderTims
Batrider
49% · 60 games
SilencerJaunuel
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 86%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2