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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ivorywin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
REKONIXloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ivory

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Teehee · 8 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dric~ · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 6 games
17%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Teehee · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Teehee · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 4 games
75%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dalul · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 751 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 343 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 635 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 545 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
371 picks · 651 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 552 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 464 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 149 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
Ivory 34%REKONIX 66%
The model gave 66% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Ivory in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawRupido
50% · 158 games47% · 386 games
BeastmasterinYourdreaM
Beastmaster
Clinkz
ClinkzKarma丶
60% · 63 games47% · 193 games
Phantom AssassinTraVins
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
55% · 309 games47% · 285 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskDric~
50% · 387 games48% · 142 games
Skywrath Magedalul
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroTeehee
51% · 542 games48% · 453 games
WarlockVarizh
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Ivory 33%REKONIX 67%
The model gave 67% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 24:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKarma丶
49% · 337 games52% · 124 games
Shadow FiendTraVins
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawRupido
51% · 211 games56% · 307 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
50% · 55 games43% · 182 games
AxeFbz
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroTeehee
49% · 396 games47% · 208 games
Muertadalul
Muerta
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDric~
48% · 63 games54% · 241 game
PugnaVarizh
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed31:13
Ivory 33%REKONIX 67%
The model gave 67% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Ivory in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKarma丶
49% · 230 games50% · 180 games
SvenTraVins
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
50% · 219 games46% · 210 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRupido
51% · 203 games49% · 319 games
PuckinYourdreaM
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerTeehee
60% · 27 games52% · 107 games
Keeper of the Lightdalul
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDric~
47% · 183 games53% · 46 games
GrimstrokeVarizh
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 78%
Series resultIvory 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3