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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Jigglinloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Jigglin

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Copy · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 2 games
0%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
423 · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
Lelis · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lelis · 2 games
0%

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Nine · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 355 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 543 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 464 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 587 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 372 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 556 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
343 picks · 379 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 32%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:23
Jigglin 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Jigglin in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectre423
46% · 29 games49% · 51 game
Phantom Assassin23savage
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
52% · 139 games54% · 195 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
51% · 239 games51% · 278 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderSe
45% · 330 games59% · 152 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
43% · 214 games48% · 275 games
Crystal MaidenxNova
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Jigglin 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
51% · 246 games48% · 49 games
LycanCeb
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
47% · 307 games46% · 268 games
Razor23savage
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
54% · 159 games47% · 227 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
49% · 241 game51% · 433 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSe
54% · 240 games52% · 216 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct14:22
Jigglin 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
52% · 257 games46% · 44 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
47% · 352 games48% · 172 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Muerta
MuertaLelis
50% · 172 games52% · 236 games
MarsCeb
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
58% · 56 games54% · 147 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Lich
LichSe
53% · 65 games44% · 303 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3