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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterwin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 13 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 8 games
38%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
SkyLark · 8 games
13%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 24 games
38%
Windranger
Windranger
re1bl · 23 games
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 19 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 624 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
339 picks · 363 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 419 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
320 picks · 118 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
314 picks · 164 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 423 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 580 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
JustBetter 32%HULIGANI 68%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by JustBetter in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
50% · 143 games45% · 147 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFocus
53% · 195 games44% · 168 games
Phoenixre1bl
Phoenix
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritThuG
60% · 172 games47% · 126 games
BrewmasterMiyaoo
Brewmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorSsaSpartan
50% · 138 games52% · 139 games
WeaverHellscream
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey KingdEsire
55% · 82 games45% · 150 games
SvenPanto
Sven
Game 2prediction missed34:16
JustBetter 28%HULIGANI 72%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by JustBetter in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
48% · 148 games58% · 112 games
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Razor
RazorFocus
37% · 171 game51% · 275 games
Tinyre1bl
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerThuG
48% · 188 games50% · 83 games
UnderlordMiyaoo
Underlord
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
44% · 203 games50% · 343 games
RubickHellscream
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkdEsire
52% · 211 games63% · 108 games
Elder TitanPanto
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 82%
Series resultJustBetter 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2