DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Hryvniawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustBetter
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Luna
Focus · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
362 picks · 579 bans
Mars
349 picks · 535 bans
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 673 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
JustBetter 72%Team Hryvnia 28%
The model gave 72% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 72%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1