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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Munkushi~ · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Hellscream · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
100%
Bane
Bane
smN · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Munkushi~ · 1 game
100%

Hydra

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
77%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
54%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 271 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 539 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
340 picks · 443 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 486 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 550 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 301 bans
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
275 picks · 506 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 373 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:5
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
47% · 170 games48% · 117 games
LunaKami
Luna
Sand King
Sand KingCorrupted
48% · 143 games40% · 13 games
Shadow FiendAskold
Shadow Fiend
Techies
TechiesHellscream
40% · 18 games52% · 118 games
PangolierBlizzy
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorsmN
56% · 115 games53% · 170 games
BaneMuka
Bane
56% · 28 games
UndyingZayac
Undying
Game 2prediction correct24:39
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 45%Hydra 55%
The model gave 55% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMunkushi~
60% · 121 game47% · 168 games
LinaAskold
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawCorrupted
54% · 123 games33% · 28 games
Chaos KnightKami
Chaos Knight
Riki
RikiHellscream
50% · 14 games49% · 113 games
Sand KingBlizzy
Sand King
Bane
BanesmN
60% · 201 game38% · 106 games
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
39% · 44 games
Skywrath MageMuka
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct39:47
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 41%Hydra 59%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 55:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
49% · 128 games54% · 106 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Techies
TechiesHellscream
47% · 11 games55% · 104 games
LinaAskold
Lina
Sand King
Sand KingCorrupted
46% · 128 games51% · 42 games
JakiroBlizzy
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorsmN
51% · 105 games47% · 103 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
52% · 17 games
PugnaZayac
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3