The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
barselonaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
barselona
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 537 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
343 picks · 647 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 450 bans
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 669 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 222 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:29
Kalmychata 58%barselona 42%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:28.
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Kalmychata 58%barselona 42%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 26:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 58%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2