CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 14 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 13 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 11 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 13 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 11 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 11 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
519 picks · 547 bans
Dark Willow
388 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 413 bans
Puck
338 picks · 866 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 908 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 299 bans
Nature's Prophet
290 picks · 638 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:21
Kalmychata 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingEthereal
Abaddonssnovv1
DawnbreakerAnkou
TimbersawmeLes
PudgeWoE
SnapfireWein
Bounty Hunterraregods
Disruptorasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Kalmychata 62%eSpoiled 38%
The model gave 62% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistWoE
BeastmastermeLes
EarthshakerEthereal
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Primal BeastAnkou
Warlockasdekor_r
Bounty Hunterraregods
DisruptorWein
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 66%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2