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European Pro League Season 33 · BO5
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 3:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Most Wantedloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
WoE · 13 games
62%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 26 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 21 game
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 20 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 18 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
72%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 601 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
575 picks · 233 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
537 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 318 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 244 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 546 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
429 picks · 595 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
414 picks · 400 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% Most Wanted
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:38
Kalmychata 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 37:10.
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Kalmychata 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 28:46.
Game 3prediction missed25:6
Kalmychata 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 18:13.
Game 4prediction missed34:10
Kalmychata 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 36:08.
Game 5prediction missed8:24
Kalmychata 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 38:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 59%
Series resultKalmychata 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 5