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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Team Spirit Academy

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 4 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
86 · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
75%
Venomancer
Venomancer
86 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
723 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 258 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
422 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
417 picks · 693 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 260 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 420 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 215 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:29
Kalmychata 83%Team Spirit Academy 17%
The model gave 83% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 38:02.
Game 2prediction missed
Kalmychata 83%Team Spirit Academy 17%
The model gave 83% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 83%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2