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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Teawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 11 games
18%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
689 picks · 332 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
568 picks · 605 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 247 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 667 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1128 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 362 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
338 picks · 152 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:39
Kalmychata 46%Team Tea 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 29:58.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Kalmychata 46%Team Tea 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 27:25.
Game 3prediction correct30:26
Kalmychata 46%Team Tea 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 54%
Series resultTeam Tea 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3