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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 12 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
27%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 240 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 664 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 355 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 384 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Kalmychata 22%Team Tidebound 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 34:28.
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Kalmychata 22%Team Tidebound 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 53:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 78%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2