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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
uralanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

No games played over 6 months.

uralan

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
waveformn · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
waveformn · 2 games
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
monodrama · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
100%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 283 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
305 picks · 131 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 453 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
304 picks · 124 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 288 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
274 picks · 238 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 362 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:42
Kalmychata 63%uralan 37%
The model gave 63% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by uralan in 1:02:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
42% · 227 games59% · 122 games
Lone Druidcutie
Lone Druid
Underlord
UnderlordAnkou
47% · 233 games53% · 161 game
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxn丶e
51% · 135 games48% · 186 games
BatriderMiyaoo
Batrider
Rubick
Rubickani-san
43% · 182 games55% · 199 games
Miranawaveformn
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernJANTER
53% · 126 games50% · 235 games
Ringmastermonodrama
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Kalmychata 64%uralan 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidyowaai
44% · 29 games49% · 88 games
Lifestealercutie
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
45% · 39 games52% · 76 games
Dark SeerMiyaoo
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritxn丶e
46% · 52 games43% · 3 games
Outworld DestroyerPanda
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
TechiesJANTER
50% · 53 games50% · 51 game
Spirit Breakerwaveformn
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonani-san
54% · 85 games57% · 40 games
Witch Doctormonodrama
Witch Doctor
Game 3prediction correct
Kalmychata 76%uralan 24%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 4prediction correct30:14
Kalmychata 64%uralan 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
53% · 157 games47% · 116 games
Terrorbladecutie
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
46% · 435 games47% · 219 games
TimbersawMiyaoo
Timbersaw
Largo
LargoAnkou
57% · 302 games46% · 379 games
TinyPanda
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark Willowani-san
52% · 312 games49% · 536 games
Hoodwinkwaveformn
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernxn丶e
53% · 206 games49% · 162 games
Miranamonodrama
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 76%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4