Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionKKebab-enjoyerswin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Plasmaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kebab-enjoyers
No games played over 6 months.
Plasma
Bristleback
legacy · 1 game
Sven
legacy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 617 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 664 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Plasma
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Plasma
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:24
Kebab-enjoyers 39%Plasma 61%
The model gave 61% on Plasma — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 43:56.
Game 2prediction correct24:40
Kebab-enjoyers 39%Plasma 61%
The model gave 61% on Plasma — the game was taken by Plasma in 44:09.
Game 3prediction missed14:7
Kebab-enjoyers 39%Plasma 61%
The model gave 61% on Plasma — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 24:41.
Model check result
Model favoritePlasma · 61%
Series resultKebab-enjoyers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3