Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
kefteme.mp3win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Derzhawinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 596 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 491 bans
Beastmaster
457 picks · 1100 bans
Doom
447 picks · 807 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 832 bans
Enchantress
381 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% kefteme.mp3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:23
kefteme.mp3 83%Derzhawin 17%
The model gave 83% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Derzhawin in 48:20.
Game 2prediction missed12:23
kefteme.mp3 83%Derzhawin 17%
The model gave 83% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by Derzhawin in 25:39.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 83%
Series resultkefteme.mp3 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2