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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 9 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 8 games
88%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
88%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Qhali

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
57%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Luis · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Cucahook · 6 games
67%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Hermit · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 6 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
791 picks · 560 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 400 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 569 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 430 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
453 picks · 734 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
416 picks · 825 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
409 picks · 292 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
362 picks · 264 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
Keyd Stars 52%Qhali 48%
The model gave 52% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
53% · 178 games57% · 73 games
SlarkCucahook
Slark
Timbersaw
TimbersawTavo
43% · 159 games57% · 197 games
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
45% · 347 games53% · 229 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
46% · 217 games49% · 283 games
SnapfireMonHty
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKingrd
44% · 62 games54% · 181 game
Treant ProtectorLuis
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Keyd Stars 54%Qhali 46%
The model gave 54% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCostabile
49% · 71 game39% · 41 game
SpectreCucahook
Spectre
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
51% · 305 games50% · 144 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaTavo
55% · 258 games52% · 237 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
48% · 223 games44% · 258 games
SnapfireMonHty
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKingrd
46% · 69 games58% · 246 games
UndyingLuis
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 60%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2