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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Klim Sani4

No games played over 6 months.

Chimera Esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
60%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Nande · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Chuvash · 4 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 4 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 451 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
239 picks · 217 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
236 picks · 129 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 660 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
228 picks · 316 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
Klim Sani4 71%Chimera Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 26:38.
Game 2prediction missed21:26
Klim Sani4 71%Chimera Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 39:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 71%
Series resultKlim Sani4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2