Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
349 picks · 268 bans
Marci
302 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 215 bans
Undying
276 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 455 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 308 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
KOBOLDS 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 30:51.
Game 2prediction correct31:41
KOBOLDS 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 61%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2