Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TVTeam Virgoloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
Team Virgo
Marcioften banned
Luciano · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Luciano · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 267 bans
Marci
302 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
276 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 451 bans
Primal Beast
233 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% KOBOLDS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
KOBOLDS 54%Team Virgo 46%
The model gave 54% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 22:55.
Game 2prediction correct53:26
KOBOLDS 54%Team Virgo 46%
The model gave 54% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 35:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOBOLDS · 54%
Series resultKOBOLDS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2