2022 Asian Games · BO1
result vs prediction
Кыргызстанwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Филиппиныloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Lich
Max · 4 games
Warlock
Max · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Max · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Филиппины
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Clinkz
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Mastermind · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
310 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
220 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 413 bans
Beastmaster
196 picks · 391 bans
Skywrath Mage
190 picks · 110 bans
Dark Seer
186 picks · 354 bans
Storm Spirit
186 picks · 274 bans
Doom
173 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Кыргызстан 45%Филиппины 55%
The model gave 55% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 55%
Series resultКыргызстан 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1