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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 8 games
75%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 315 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 232 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 478 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 403 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
205 picks · 287 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 452 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 253 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:12
KZ TEAM 57%B8 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectre7jesu
55% · 45 games42% · 36 games
Wraith KingLowskill
Wraith King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSkyLark
57% · 53 games49% · 126 games
Spirit BreakerStoneBank
Spirit Breaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
47% · 116 games53% · 68 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Enchantress
EnchantressSsaSpartan
52% · 125 games44% · 120 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
Muerta
MuertaAstral
54% · 74 games48% · 63 games
Ancient ApparitionMary_y
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct29:9
KZ TEAM 51%B8 Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker7jesu
42% · 96 games52% · 123 games
Faceless VoidLowskill
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
41% · 106 games59% · 134 games
PuckDendi
Puck
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
46% · 327 games51% · 269 games
Nature's ProphetCTOMAHEH1
Nature's Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressSsaSpartan
49% · 181 game58% · 43 games
Night StalkerStoneBank
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
50% · 123 games53% · 264 games
Treant ProtectorMary_y
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 61%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2