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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ram Squadloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 25 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 22 games
32%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
60%
Undying
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
W1sh- · 14 games
71%

Ram Squad

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
744 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 476 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 1019 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 375 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 972 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
395 picks · 647 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
KZ TEAM 59%Ram Squad 41%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ram Squad in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
TuskG.T.I
58% · 232 games42% · 144 games
Naga SirenkAAN
Naga Siren
Enigma
EnigmaMr. Luck
50% · 142 games47% · 202 games
DoomBliNcc
Doom
Disruptor
DisruptorNikolica
54% · 158 games49% · 76 games
Queen of PaincanceL^^
Queen of Pain
48% · 56 games
Techiesw33
Techies
43% · 54 games
Vengeful SpiritFlash
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct48:10
KZ TEAM 58%Ram Squad 42%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 27:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMr. Luck
48% · 94 games60% · 43 games
VisageBliNcc
Visage
Invoker
InvokerG.T.I
46% · 72 games54% · 20 games
WindrangerkAAN
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerNikolica
51% · 35 games46% · 82 games
Ember SpiritcanceL^^
Ember Spirit
52% · 9 games
Spirit Breakerw33
Spirit Breaker
50% · 47 games
SilencerFlash
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct31:24
KZ TEAM 56%Ram Squad 44%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 45:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerG.T.I
41% · 132 games48% · 42 games
MorphlingkAAN
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusMr. Luck
42% · 105 games64% · 44 games
PuckcanceL^^
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerNikolica
51% · 83 games68% · 76 games
BeastmasterBliNcc
Beastmaster
48% · 81 game
Rubickw33
Rubick
50% · 77 games
UndyingFlash
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 67%
Series resultKZ TEAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3