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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 16 games
44%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 14 games
86%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Dukalis · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 358 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
236 picks · 109 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 475 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
206 picks · 316 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
203 picks · 298 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 390 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
189 picks · 351 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
188 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:26
KZ TEAM 39%Team Tickles 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 53:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusW1sh-
51% · 60 games50% · 212 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerOtaker
51% · 161 game42% · 213 games
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaSkyLark
57% · 102 games47% · 103 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
MuertaAstral
57% · 80 games48% · 141 game
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Rubick
RubickSsaSpartan
47% · 533 games50% · 267 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct21:29
KZ TEAM 36%Team Tickles 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightW1sh-
51% · 105 games51% · 113 games
Naga SirenUlnit
Naga Siren
Spectre
SpectreOtaker
52% · 58 games50% · 129 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Axe
AxeSkyLark
51% · 47 games55% · 79 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
43% · 142 games56% · 117 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
46% · 234 games48% · 148 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 70%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2