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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
36%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 8 games
50%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 757 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 703 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 562 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
405 picks · 181 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
HULIGANI 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
47% · 194 games53% · 185 games
AlchemistMunkushi~
Alchemist
Batrider
Batriderre1bl
49% · 223 games46% · 189 games
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
48% · 85 games47% · 288 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
50% · 237 games63% · 58 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOneJey
47% · 208 games52% · 227 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:22
HULIGANI 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracre1bl
53% · 92 games40% · 40 games
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Anti-Mage
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
57% · 116 games53% · 130 games
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaBb3px
54% · 148 games42% · 110 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Pugna
PugnaOneJey
52% · 114 games48% · 108 games
Nature's Prophetswedenstrong
Nature's Prophet
Bane
BanePanto
57% · 34 games43% · 116 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 60%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2