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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 33 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 31 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
57%

AVULUS

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
39%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 16 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 14 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
549 picks · 901 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 398 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 652 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 607 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
409 picks · 858 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 602 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 501 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 582 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:16
HULIGANI 53%AVULUS 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
53% · 142 games55% · 85 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
48% · 221 game45% · 33 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
49% · 64 games51% · 156 games
MarsCorrupted
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
46% · 49 games54% · 82 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
47% · 65 games50% · 185 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed8:19
HULIGANI 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
51% · 144 games43% · 67 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Tiny
Tinyxn丶e
46% · 319 games50% · 412 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
51% · 63 games53% · 259 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
Jakiroslimeyao
47% · 425 games57% · 193 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
52% · 244 games50% · 264 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct42:19
HULIGANI 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
50% · 206 games52% · 80 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Viper
ViperBb3px
57% · 88 games50% · 515 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinyxn丶e
52% · 363 games50% · 175 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
46% · 254 games48% · 480 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
48% · 430 games48% · 91 game
Spirit BreakerWein
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 55%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3