DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 1:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Enjoy Boysloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 35 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 32 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 30 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 27 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 27 games
Enjoy Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
562 picks · 648 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 675 bans
Snapfire
447 picks · 161 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
422 picks · 202 bans
Mars
388 picks · 521 bans
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:3
HULIGANI 91%Enjoy Boys 9%
The model gave 91% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 91%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1