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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
41%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 690 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 865 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
417 picks · 183 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 645 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
395 picks · 690 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
395 picks · 309 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:43
HULIGANI 56%Natus Vincere Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:06:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
49% · 106 games47% · 128 games
Razorpma
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightre1bl
54% · 84 games59% · 37 games
DazzleNiku
Dazzle
Kunkka
KunkkaBb3px
53% · 88 games46% · 44 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Rubick
RubickPanto
54% · 192 games45% · 84 games
IoDaze
Io
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
51% · 70 games46% · 247 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed12:44
HULIGANI 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperre1bl
53% · 22 games47% · 113 games
Razorpma
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerRAMZES666
44% · 241 game53% · 211 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusBb3px
48% · 240 games56% · 56 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Tiny
TinyOneJey
53% · 211 games48% · 182 games
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanto
49% · 186 games53% · 338 games
BatriderRiddys
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2