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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Alberkaaa · 13 games
62%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 19 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
pma · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 355 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 463 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 586 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 372 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 554 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
342 picks · 378 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:18
HULIGANI 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawAlberkaaa
49% · 248 games50% · 422 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey Kingv1olent-
56% · 147 games46% · 274 games
Primal Beastpma
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMirage
47% · 159 games52% · 231 game
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
47% · 335 games59% · 158 games
ChenRiddys
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
44% · 249 games51% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct5:31
HULIGANI 40%Natus Vincere Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirage
50% · 196 games44% · 175 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
44% · 140 games52% · 220 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
47% · 178 games52% · 49 games
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Chen
ChenRESPECT
61% · 112 games56% · 57 games
Night StalkerNiku
Night Stalker
Muerta
Muertaqueezy
48% · 108 games48% · 233 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 71%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2