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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 21 game
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 15 games
40%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 13 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 12 games
42%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 13 games
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
queezy · 12 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 658 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 572 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 372 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 710 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:21
HULIGANI 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
50% · 4 games46% · 159 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void Spiritre1bl
45% · 75 games50% · 30 games
VisageMikSa`
Visage
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
55% · 138 games51% · 138 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderPanto
49% · 284 games53% · 234 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
54% · 173 games48% · 113 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct24:7
HULIGANI 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 28:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
57% · 42 games45% · 133 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Lina
Linare1bl
46% · 89 games56% · 82 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
53% · 256 games48% · 20 games
Night StalkerMikSa`
Night Stalker
Venomancer
VenomancerPanto
49% · 36 games46% · 183 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverOneJey
56% · 109 games45% · 114 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct28:21
HULIGANI 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
52% · 187 games48% · 191 game
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
Leshracre1bl
59% · 125 games50% · 61 game
Death Prophetnicky`cool
Death Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
49% · 105 games45% · 263 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
46% · 110 games48% · 158 games
Grimstrokequeezy
Grimstroke
Batrider
BatriderPanto
52% · 282 games51% · 136 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3