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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Panto · 18 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 13 games
54%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 22 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
59%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
SSS · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
449 picks · 555 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
438 picks · 525 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
380 picks · 568 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
367 picks · 276 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
360 picks · 404 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
353 picks · 177 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 722 bans
52%
Invoker
Invoker
318 picks · 906 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:8
HULIGANI 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
50% · 307 games46% · 158 games
TerrorbladeWoE
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
45% · 112 games51% · 251 game
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckMirage
50% · 240 games49% · 426 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
47% · 340 games58% · 172 games
WeaverJANTER
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMalady
45% · 97 games59% · 89 games
LichRein
Lich
Game 2prediction correct18:19
HULIGANI 43%One Move 57%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
44% · 333 games51% · 485 games
TinyWoE
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
43% · 439 games56% · 202 games
BristlebackSSS
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
47% · 247 games52% · 261 game
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinqueezy
48% · 113 games61% · 199 games
ChenRein
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
45% · 308 games52% · 293 games
LionJANTER
Lion
Game 3prediction missed31:16
HULIGANI 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
52% · 418 games55% · 463 games
TinyWoE
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
52% · 266 games46% · 110 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
49% · 516 games45% · 315 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Lion
Lionqueezy
49% · 379 games48% · 467 games
BatriderRein
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMalady
55% · 105 games49% · 329 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3