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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 42 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 41 game
66%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 38 games
47%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 28 games
61%

Pipsqueak+4

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
aik · 41 game
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 36 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 35 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 31 game
48%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 29 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 28 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
668 picks · 800 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 538 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 416 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
458 picks · 320 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1124 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 604 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 796 bans
51%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 1014 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
HULIGANI 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
51% · 79 games55% · 70 games
LunaLowskill
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
51% · 176 games48% · 255 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
47% · 202 games50% · 107 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
50% · 71 game49% · 251 game
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
50% · 191 game52% · 36 games
MiranaSoNNeikO
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed14:31
HULIGANI 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidssnovv1
56% · 81 game48% · 199 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
50% · 204 games51% · 99 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
SlardarMirage
47% · 253 games44% · 133 games
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
55% · 218 games50% · 29 games
MiranaSoNNeikO
Mirana
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
54% · 95 games47% · 391 game
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct47:28
HULIGANI 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:05:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonssnovv1
47% · 117 games61% · 89 games
Faceless VoidLowskill
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
49% · 231 game56% · 195 games
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
45% · 164 games50% · 222 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Venomancer
VenomancerRESPECT
43% · 46 games50% · 24 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
48% · 180 games49% · 208 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3