FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tealoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 20 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Team Tea
Hoodwink
dEsire · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 2 games
Slardar
Cloud · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 1 game
Chenoften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Elder Titan
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
287 picks · 695 bans
Shadow Shaman
281 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
255 picks · 222 bans
Dawnbreaker
252 picks · 652 bans
Tusk
250 picks · 253 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 105 bans
Marci
246 picks · 601 bans
Nature's Prophet
242 picks · 547 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:4
HULIGANI 47%Team Tea 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightv1olent-
UrsaKami
Puckerase
PangolierCloud
DawnbreakerBb3px
Void SpiritWorick
Clockwerkslimeyao
ChenSoNNeikO
Ancient ApparitionRESPECT
HoodwinkdEsire
Game 2prediction missed24:18
HULIGANI 47%Team Tea 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:02:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonv1olent-
PuckWorick
Dragon Knighterase
Monkey KingKami
DawnbreakerBb3px
SnapfiredEsire
ChenRESPECT
SlardarCloud
Hoodwinkslimeyao
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2