DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Twin Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
Warlock
aik · 14 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Twin Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 685 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 638 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:14
HULIGANI 90%Twin Team 10%
The model gave 90% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 90%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1