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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Latam Defenders

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 4 games
75%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 4 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Cucahook · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
33%

SG e-sports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
191 picks · 421 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
175 picks · 322 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
164 picks · 232 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
163 picks · 136 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
141 picks · 160 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 219 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 423 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
120 picks · 67 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:36
Latam Defenders 43%SG e-sports 57%
The model gave 57% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 23:20.
Game 2prediction correct10:32
Latam Defenders 43%SG e-sports 57%
The model gave 57% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 25:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 57%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2