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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
payk · 1 game
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
payk · 1 game
0%

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Luna
Luna
Pakazs · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 444 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 384 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
233 picks · 312 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
216 picks · 101 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 202 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
193 picks · 365 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
190 picks · 521 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:24
Lava 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistJP
51% · 57 games44% · 110 games
BloodseekerPakazs
Bloodseeker
Puck
PuckLeostyle
55% · 65 games49% · 54 games
AbaddonILICH-
Abaddon
Tusk
TuskDemon
48% · 63 games53% · 141 game
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderAccel
52% · 120 games
Game 2prediction correct19:29
Lava 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJP
44% · 40 games44% · 57 games
WeaverPakazs
Weaver
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterLeostyle
45% · 23 games53% · 84 games
Monkey KingILICH-
Monkey King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDemon
50% · 36 games61% · 35 games
ChenPanda
Chen
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAccel
52% · 77 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2