DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Lavawin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
South Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
payk · 1 game
Razoroften banned
payk · 1 game
Wraith King
payk · 1 game
South Team
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Wij · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
MonHty · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Mirana
MonHty · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Wij · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 370 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
223 picks · 294 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:30
Lava 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Lava — the game was taken by South Team in 1:07:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 52%
Series resultLava 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1