Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Big Brainloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Rubick
Helios · 3 games
Earthshaker
CatYou · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Disruptor
guoguo · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Tz. · 1 game
Big Brain
Snapfire
Helios · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Clockwerk
Tz. · 2 games
Hoodwink
Hara · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Omniknight
Hara · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
eGo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
524 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
495 picks · 488 bans
Tiny
481 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
367 picks · 431 bans
Mirana
351 picks · 345 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 160 bans
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 691 bans
Clockwerk
278 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Big Brain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:38
LBZS 44%Big Brain 56%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by LBZS in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingFonte
Nature's ProphetManic
NecrophosShanks
Tinyblessing
Primal BeastTzy
Centaur WarrunnerMolasses
SnapfireHelios
Miranamarblue
Treant Protectorguoguo
ClockwerkTz.
Game 2prediction correct24:45
LBZS 44%Big Brain 56%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 49:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendFonte
Templar AssassinManic
Queen of PainShanks
Puckblessing
MarciTzy
Death ProphetMolasses
RubickHelios
Tuskmarblue
Clockwerkguoguo
Treant ProtectorTz.
Game 3prediction missed24:22
LBZS 44%Big Brain 56%
The model gave 56% on Big Brain — the game was taken by LBZS in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracShanks
Nature's ProphetManic
Shadow FiendFonte
Pangolierblessing
DoomTzy
Death ProphetMolasses
RubickHelios
Tinymarblue
Clockwerkguoguo
Treant ProtectorTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 60%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3