Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 11 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
MS · 4 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 573 bans
Mars
332 picks · 610 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 264 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:46
LBZS 17%Lilgun 83%
The model gave 83% on Lilgun — the game was taken by LBZS in 47:53.
Game 2prediction correct8:29
LBZS 17%Lilgun 83%
The model gave 83% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 18:55.
Game 3prediction missed37:10
LBZS 17%Lilgun 83%
The model gave 83% on Lilgun — the game was taken by LBZS in 24:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 83%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3