?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silencersignature
MiLAN · 9 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
63%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 7 games
86%

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
GH · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 15 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
485 picks · 294 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 895 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 809 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
382 picks · 859 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 927 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 416 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Level UP 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
44% · 48 games52% · 15 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Slardar
SlardarDaxak
43% · 3 games54% · 81 game
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOwnedMe
54% · 23 games46% · 36 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
46% · 16 games58% · 72 games
LichKuroKy
Lich
Undying
UndyingMiLAN
46% · 114 games
Game 2prediction missed21:44
Level UP 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
48% · 63 games50% · 86 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Sven
SvenDaxak
47% · 43 games53% · 61 game
Faceless VoidYuma
Faceless Void
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderOwnedMe
63% · 35 games45% · 98 games
Spirit BreakerKuroKy
Spirit Breaker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritswedenstrong
54% · 19 games50% · 38 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
47% · 123 games
Game 3prediction missed13:32
Level UP 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
51% · 129 games42% · 27 games
SpectreYuma
Spectre
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
46% · 130 games55% · 126 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterOwnedMe
52% · 65 games55% · 53 games
ChenKuroKy
Chen
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
48% · 79 games47% · 313 games
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
50% · 116 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3