European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 28 games
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 14 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 12 games
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
405 picks · 325 bans
Dark Willow
328 picks · 176 bans
Puck
327 picks · 759 bans
Tusk
317 picks · 308 bans
Batrider
304 picks · 807 bans
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 613 bans
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 536 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total77% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Level UP 34%Passion UA 66%
The model gave 66% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMaTson
UrsaCrystallize
Shadow Demonjesv
PangolierBatyuk
TuskAtoufix
LeshracMoonlight
52% · 301 game
TinyQBFY
50% · 80 games
Disruptorkreker
Game 2prediction correct28:51
Level UP 32%Passion UA 68%
The model gave 68% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMaTson
Monkey KingCrystallize
LionAtoufix
Void SpiritBatyuk
Disruptorjesv
LeshracMoonlight
51% · 70 games
Snapfirekreker
54% · 291 game
TinyQBFY
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 77%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2