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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
LFGloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LFG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Astral · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nizam` · 5 games
60%
Lich
Lich
flacko · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
flacko · 3 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 26 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 25 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 22 games
41%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 18 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 16 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 420 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 537 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 521 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 231 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 771 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 580 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 425 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% LFG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:29
LFG 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenyowaai
55% · 55 games50% · 177 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Tiny
TinyNizam`
44% · 193 games51% · 102 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Magnus
MagnusNorma
50% · 100 games43% · 181 game
LinaStojkov
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAstral
55% · 169 games49% · 39 games
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
52% · 169 games54% · 187 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct36:38
LFG 40%Zero Tenacity 60%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusyowaai
55% · 164 games55% · 93 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
50% · 89 games47% · 336 games
PhoenixNefrit
Phoenix
Pangolier
PangolierNizam`
43% · 286 games53% · 247 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
51% · 171 game51% · 110 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Lich
Lichflacko
47% · 111 games47% · 35 games
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2