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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 20 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
shiro · 19 games
74%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 11 games
91%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
天命 · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
天命 · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 384 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
168 picks · 153 bans
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
164 picks · 70 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
155 picks · 232 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
LGD Gaming 61%Azure Ray 39%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertashiro
48% · 43 games47% · 51 game
SnapfireSomnus
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
49% · 80 games52% · 19 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerniu
51% · 21 game51% · 20 games
BristlebackChalice
Bristleback
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirity`
40% · 47 games54% · 83 games
Shadow Demonfy
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
57% · 71 game49% · 89 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct33:24
LGD Gaming 58%Azure Ray 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectreshiro
48% · 36 games56% · 78 games
EarthshakerSomnus
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
52% · 85 games50% · 20 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Brewmaster
Brewmasterniu
48% · 73 games45% · 87 games
DawnbreakerChalice
Dawnbreaker
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctory`
33% · 5 games51% · 289 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
45% · 329 games59% · 54 games
Grimstroke天命
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 69%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2