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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
69%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 34 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 22 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 392 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
477 picks · 705 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 523 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
305 picks · 471 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 669 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 386 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
271 picks · 864 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 373 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 46%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:4
LGD Gaming 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
49% · 220 games55% · 100 games
LifestealerJaCkky
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
47% · 214 games43% · 426 games
MarsYopaj
Mars
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
55% · 42 games49% · 111 games
PhoenixFbz
Phoenix
Chen
Cheny`
60% · 93 games45% · 127 games
TuskTims
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
51% · 271 game47% · 76 games
Crystal MaidenSkem
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:11
LGD Gaming 63%BOOM Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
35% · 56 games52% · 81 game
BloodseekerJaCkky
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
49% · 286 games50% · 141 game
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Visage
VisageFaith_bian
48% · 138 games51% · 203 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
54% · 83 games49% · 136 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Undying
Undyingy`
55% · 159 games53% · 161 game
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2