ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 1:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GamerLegionloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 17 games
Banesignature
KJ · 16 games
Largooften banned
Wisper · 11 games
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 11 games
Drow Rangersignature
Yuma · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
TaiLung · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
GamerLegion
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 19 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 19 games
Kezoften banned
RCY · 17 games
Phoenix
Speeed · 17 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 16 games
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Largooften banned
Fayde · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
497 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
372 picks · 225 bans
Clockwerk
354 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 340 bans
Windranger
315 picks · 229 bans
Bane
310 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 427 bans
Pangolier
292 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
LGD Gaming 81%GamerLegion 19%
The model gave 81% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1