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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 27 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 26 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
70%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1019 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 596 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
356 picks · 184 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 359 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
333 picks · 518 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
322 picks · 701 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 286 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
LGD Gaming 88%Royal Never Give Up 12%
The model gave 88% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:32.
Game 2prediction correct24:17
LGD Gaming 88%Royal Never Give Up 12%
The model gave 88% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 88%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2