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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ame · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
y` · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 2 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ame · 2 games
0%

Team MagMa

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
148 picks · 268 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
146 picks · 341 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
134 picks · 110 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
125 picks · 187 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
116 picks · 127 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
98 picks · 181 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
97 picks · 341 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
96 picks · 47 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
LGD Gaming 50%Team MagMa 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:30.
Game 2prediction correct41:11
LGD Gaming 50%Team MagMa 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 50%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2