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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 32 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
79%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 31 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 186 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 132 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
295 picks · 598 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 362 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
277 picks · 458 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
269 picks · 603 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
260 picks · 244 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
253 picks · 368 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:11
LGD Gaming 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
53% · 65 games37% · 43 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
56% · 110 games52% · 85 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Clinkz
ClinkzXiao8
little data44% · 46 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
57% · 124 games45% · 80 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Omniknight
Omniknighty`
39% · 31 game51% · 76 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct22:40
LGD Gaming 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAme
49% · 164 games49% · 123 games
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
46% · 113 games50% · 98 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierXiao8
56% · 186 games49% · 258 games
LionMira
Lion
Io
IoXinQ
54% · 62 games42% · 78 games
BloodseekerCollapse
Bloodseeker
Clockwerk
Clockwerky`
54% · 172 games50% · 140 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed33:30
LGD Gaming 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
43% · 58 games52% · 32 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Clinkz
ClinkzXiao8
63% · 4 games56% · 38 games
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
71% · 3 games44% · 24 games
BloodseekerCollapse
Bloodseeker
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
58% · 65 games39% · 29 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
52% · 54 games46% · 61 game
LionMiposhka
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3